Somali Analyst Ahmed Cadde Publishes Critical Piece on Somaliland in Foreign Policy

Mogadishu, September 9, 2025 – Somali political and security analyst Ahmed Cadde has published a detailed commentary in the U.S.-based magazine Foreign Policy, warning against American recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.

In his article titled “Stop Trying to Make Somaliland Happen”, Cadde argued that U.S. recognition of Somaliland would destabilize the Horn of Africa, undermine counterterrorism cooperation, and embolden separatist movements across the continent. He emphasized that while Somaliland has relative stability and a history of elections, it remains legally part of Somalia and lacks full control over its claimed territory.

Cadde highlighted the violent history of Somaliland’s attempts to impose authority in contested regions such as Sool and Las Anod, noting that recognition at this stage would risk reigniting inter-clan conflicts and regional instability. He also warned that extremist groups like al-Shabab could exploit the issue, especially in light of controversial proposals linking Somaliland with Israeli plans for Palestinian relocation.

The Somali analyst further stressed that unilateral U.S. recognition would damage Washington’s credibility in Africa and provide opportunities for rivals such as China and Russia to portray the United States as reckless. Instead, he suggested that Washington should continue engaging Somaliland through development aid and security cooperation, while upholding Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Cadde concluded that the Horn of Africa is already volatile due to Ethiopia’s conflicts and instability in the Red Sea corridor, and urged the U.S. to focus on policies that promote stability rather than “legitimizing another fragile rupture.”