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Tensions in the Horn of Africa are rising rapidly. According to a special report by The Africa Report dated July 26, top leaders from Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Tigray region are warning that a new large-scale war may be imminent in the region—just as it struggles to recover from the devastating civil war between 2020 and 2022, which claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Serious Accusations: Eritrea Claims Ethiopia Is Preparing for War
In a comprehensive interview on July 19, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of preparing for war in its quest for access to the Red Sea, calling Addis Ababa’s ambition to reclaim the port of Assab “a madman’s plan” and accusing the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of masterminding a regional power grab.
“Eritrea has no desire to wage war,” Isaias said, “but if war is forced on us, we know how to defend ourselves.” He added: “What Ethiopia is saying is no secret to anyone—‘We will take Assab… we’ll enter via Sudan and do this and that.’ Can a sane person really think like this? This is childish provocation. Our message is: ‘No! You’d better stay put.’”
According to Chatham House analyst Abel Abate Demissie, Isaias’s speech signals the official collapse of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, following months of rumors about deteriorating ties.
Ethiopia Responds: “We Want Peace, But Will Defend Ourselves if Threatened”
In a July 3 speech to parliament, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized that Ethiopia was determined to secure sea access through peaceful means, but added: “Should any threat to our peace arise, Ethiopia possesses the full capacity to defend itself—and it will.”
He also addressed rising tensions with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that rules Ethiopia’s northernmost region. Calling on diplomats and religious leaders to mediate, Abiy urged action: “Start now to prevent conflict in Tigray. It will be meaningless to speak after it has begun.”
However, Abiy’s comments sparked alarm in Tigray. On July 12, General Haileselassie Girmay of the TPLF-aligned Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) said Tigrayan forces were “making preparations because we are hearing things that force us to prepare.”
Tensions Boil in Tigray
That same week, skirmishes broke out in Wejerat, a region within Tigray, when TPLF forces fired mortars at the rival Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), a new armed group backed by Abiy’s government. The TPF eventually withdrew after local farmers intervened to stop a conflict from breaking out during the sowing season.
The TPLF itself has splintered. Former Tigray interim leader Getachew Reda, now a special adviser to Abiy, has formed the Democratic Solidarity Party and has federal backing. In contrast, the TPLF leadership has reportedly grown closer to Eritrea. Though this alliance is officially denied, General Haileselassie hinted at it: “Former enemies [like Eritrea] may now become allies—or at least not attack us.”
TPLF forces have also splintered: some former TDF fighters formed the TPF, vowing to remove the TPLF from power with the backing of Ethiopia’s federal government.
Diplomatic Risks and Strategic Stakes
According to The Africa Report, the rising tension between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Tigray could drag the region back into war. “The growing militarization and complex web of alliances could lead to a miscalculation that triggers full-scale conflict,” warns Abel from Chatham House.
In a June 20 letter to the UN Secretary-General, Ethiopia accused the TPLF and Eritrea of plotting “major offensive operations” during the current rainy season, which lasts until mid-September.
On July 21, Getachew Reda, former Tigray leader, issued a stark warning: “The foreseeable and forewarned outcome of this unholy alliance [between Eritrea and the TPLF] is a renewed declaration of war on our people.”
Strategic Fears Over the Red Sea
Since October 2023, Abiy’s references to Ethiopia’s “existential” need for Red Sea access have alarmed Eritrea. Eritrean leaders fear that Addis Ababa may resort to force to secure one of its lost ports.
Although a 2022 peace deal ended open conflict between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, Eritrea was excluded from negotiations—sowing the seeds of the current hostility between former wartime allies Abiy and Isaias.
Now, with Eritrea possibly aligning with the TPLF and Ethiopia backing rival factions in Tigray, the Horn of Africa once again stands on the brink of war.
