EXCLUSIVE: Economic Crisis and Repression Fuel Opposition in Ethiopia

Originally published by Affari Italiani – Translated and adapted for HornPulse

On May 22, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Paris. The visit, which came shortly after Macron’s trip to Addis Ababa on December 21, 2024, was almost unexpected and aimed at strengthening what is officially called a “strategic friendship” between the two countries. According to Abiy, the talks were “constructive,” while Macron stated on X that France envisions a “peaceful and prosperous” future for Ethiopia.

But France wasn’t the only stop on Abiy’s European tour.

A few days later, he traveled to Rome to meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Leo XIV. He canceled a planned visit to the UK after protests by the Ethiopian diaspora in London, who decried mass killings in the Amhara region and the arrests of MPs and opposition figures in Addis Ababa.

Officially, the European tour aimed to attract foreign investment. But Abiy’s real goal appeared to be securing political backing from the European Union. France might help sway Germany, while Meloni could mediate with more conservative EU governments.

Italian media, which according to recent data devotes only 14% of its foreign coverage to East Africa, largely ignored Abiy’s visit—apart from a few wire agencies. In contrast, French journalist Augustine Passilly, writing for Le Point, provided an in-depth analysis, revealing deeper motives behind the trip.

“The main aim of this tour,” explained Mahdì Labzaè, a CNRS researcher and Africa expert, “was to gauge how allied countries would respond to a potential new war with Eritrea. The regime is also desperately looking for new sources of funding, being on the brink of bankruptcy.”

Ethiopia’s economic crisis is dire. The $265 million expected from the IMF in late June will not be enough to stabilize a country where, according to an internal report, 26% of its 130 million people live in extreme poverty.

With the economy in freefall and domestic support evaporated, Abiy is shifting attention outward—specifically to Eritrea.

After Italian colonialism and decades of federation and annexation, Eritrea won independence in 1991. A brutal war between 1998 and 2000 followed, and the Algiers Agreement that ended it created a state of “no war, no peace.” Dialogue resumed only with Abiy’s rise to power in 2018, but broke down again after the Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigray forces.

Abiy is now demanding access to the Eritrean port of Assab for both commercial and military use—including a naval base—calling the loss of Assab “a historic mistake.” Yet Eritrea has never denied access to its ports for commercial purposes, and historically these ports were never Ethiopian except during periods of federation, annexation, and military occupation.

Still, the notion that “a great nation must have sea access” might resonate in Europe, even if no European leader has publicly endorsed it. The nature of Abiy’s visits, however, suggests a bid for support should another war with Eritrea erupt. France’s friendly tone seems to have reassured him. Macron welcomed Abiy with smiles and handshakes despite widespread accusations of human rights violations in the Amhara and Oromo regions.

Abiy also continues to leverage his supposed commitment to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, signed after a devastating two-year war involving the Eritrean military and the Ethiopian federal government against TPLF forces. However, TPLF is now fractured, and the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael is aligning itself with Eritrea—fearing a new offensive from Abiy.

Alongside diplomacy, Abiy is seeking military support from Turkey, which has already supplied drones used in airstrikes in the Amhara region, and from the UAE, which could back him in a potential conflict with Eritrea. According to internal sources, Ethiopian troops have been massing near the Eritrean border in recent months.

Desta Tilahum, secretary-general of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, addressed Europe directly:
“We need diplomatic relations with the European Union—but they must benefit the people, not just one leader. European politicians must understand that people in Ethiopia are dying daily from hunger, internal conflict, and inflation. Children can’t attend school. Youth are forced to fight. I’ve never seen such chaos. If Ethiopia collapses, the world will feel it.”

The opposition, often silenced or repressed, fears that Abiy’s European tour was not about solving the crisis, but about securing funds to complete vanity projects and consolidate his grip on power. While in Rome, Abiy met with Pietro Salini, CEO of construction giant Webuild, which is completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and has expressed frustration over delayed payments.

Meanwhile, in mid-May, Ethiopia saw a massive health workers’ strike over poor conditions and low pay. Amnesty International reported hundreds of arrests following government crackdowns.

Abiy’s tour ended with a visit to the Vatican, where he met Pope Leo XIV. On social media, the prime minister thanked the Pope for the “warm welcome” and shared commitment to global peace—a message that strikes many as ironic on the eve of what could be yet another war in the Horn of Africa.