OPINION: UAE’s Proxy War in Sudan Risks Red Sea Security and Fuels Regional Instability

In May 2025, Port Sudan — the de facto capital of Sudan, a haven for millions of civilians, and the main aid entry point during the ongoing conflict — was hit by a series of attacks targeting the international airport, oil reserve tanks, and several military sites. The EU, in an official statement, indirectly attributed the attacks to the UAE by stating that they were carried out by the RSF militia with support from international backers. This statement followed multiple reports suggesting the drone strikes originated from Somalia, allegedly launched by the UAE itself.

The UAE’s reckless intervention is causing a dangerous spillover effect and poses a serious threat to the security of the entire Red Sea region. This vacuum will likely be filled by powers such as Iran and Russia, which are already positioning themselves to advance their strategic goals. These developments should prompt the West to reconsider its passive stance and adopt preventive measures, as its geopolitical interests are now at stake.

The war in Sudan began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. Since then, thousands have been killed and millions displaced. The UAE is widely seen as the primary foreign actor sustaining the RSF through continued military, financial, and logistical support — despite the devastating humanitarian toll on the Sudanese people.

The RSF emerged in 2013 from the restructuring of the notorious Janjaweed militia. Originally tasked with supporting the central government’s counterinsurgency campaigns in Darfur and South Kordofan, the RSF was formally legitimized by Sudan’s parliament in 2017. Over the years, it has been responsible for countless atrocities — including village burnings, protester killings, sexual violence, mass executions, unlawful detentions, attacks on hospitals and media institutions, ethnic cleansing, and the recruitment of child soldiers.

Evidently, the UAE has supported the RSF for years — through weapons, cash, and, more recently, foreign fighters. This support surged after the war erupted, driven by Abu Dhabi’s desire to secure its strategic and economic interests should the RSF gain control. These interests include access to gold and agricultural assets, control over Red Sea ports, and preventing the return of Islamist factions to power in Sudan.

The recent attacks in Port Sudan, meant to boost the RSF after its military setbacks, are shifting the war into a far more dangerous phase. They are also forcing the Sudanese army to consider foreign policy alternatives that could drastically reshape the Red Sea — a vital maritime corridor that handles about 15% of global trade and is Europe’s key gateway to Asia and the Pacific.

In an effort to quickly defeat the RSF and prevent further escalation, Sudan may deepen its ties with Iran. Tehran has already supplied drones and arms to Khartoum, and in exchange, Sudan may now be forced to allow the establishment of an Iranian naval base on the Red Sea — a proposal previously rejected. Such a base would enhance Iran’s regional posture and could be used to support its Houthi allies in Yemen, threaten maritime trade, and fuel other Middle East conflicts through arms transfers.

Russia also stands to benefit. Desperate for arms and diplomatic backing, Sudan may greenlight the long-delayed Russian naval base in Port Sudan. This base could then serve multiple Kremlin objectives: smuggling gold to bypass Western sanctions, deploying mercenaries to Ukraine, and leveraging maritime security as a geopolitical bargaining chip.

Meanwhile, ongoing RSF and UAE attacks are destabilizing eastern Sudan, transforming the region into a hub for human trafficking and smuggling. The breakdown of governance will likely trigger a surge in illegal migration toward Europe — a crisis Europe is ill-prepared to handle.

The UAE has also extended its proxy war into Somalia. It has used Bosaso Airport in Puntland to transport weapons and Colombian mercenaries to the RSF. Exploiting the dire economic situation, the UAE has even recruited young Somalis to fight in Sudan. These actions not only harm Somalia’s stability but also risk souring bilateral relations between Somalia and Sudan.

It is time for the West to abandon its neutral approach and confront the unfolding reality. The UAE must be pressured to end its sponsorship of the RSF. Furthermore, the international community must work toward a peace agreement that includes a roadmap for the UAE’s exit, while safeguarding Sudan’s future. Without this, the Red Sea could spiral into a new era of chaos — one the world cannot afford.

Mohamed Suliman is an independent Sudanese journalist who has been covering Sudan’s civil war since 2022