OPINION: Somalia’s Democracy Delayed: A Test of Western Credibility

For over three decades, Somalia’s 15 million citizens have been denied the basic democratic right to directly elect their leaders. The persistent use of the “4.5” clan power-sharing formula—where unelected clan elders handpick MPs, who in turn elect the president—has replaced ballots with backroom deals. Despite this, Somalia continues to receive robust support from Western donors who claim to champion democratic values globally. This contradiction has become harder to ignore.

The 4.5 system was meant to be a transitional fix after state collapse in the 1990s. Instead, it calcified into a system that fuels clan rivalry, entrenches corruption, and excludes women, youth, and minority clans from political participation. Elections under this model have seen candidates pay large sums to secure votes from clan-appointed delegates. Consequently, Somali governments lack legitimacy and popular support, which undermines both domestic stability and international development efforts.

What makes Somalia’s democratic stagnation more troubling is the stance of Western democracies. The United States, the European Union, and other donors have poured billions into Somalia’s reconstruction, funded peacekeepers, and paid government salaries. Yet, they have largely tolerated if not quietly endorsed an undemocratic system they would never accept at home. While loudly promoting democratic transitions in Ukraine, Myanmar, and Sudan, they have rarely made direct elections in Somalia a non-negotiable condition of aid. Somalia remains an outlier, where democracy is often treated as optional.

This double standard is not only hypocritical—it is strategically flawed. A government chosen by clan delegates is inherently fragile and vulnerable to extremist narratives. Groups like Al-Shabaab thrive by exploiting this democratic deficit, portraying Somalia’s leaders as foreign-imposed and illegitimate. A credible, direct election would undercut this rhetoric, empowering citizens to claim ownership of their state and isolating insurgents politically.

The argument that Somalia is not “ready” for one-person-one-vote elections no longer holds. In Somaliland a self-governing region in the north—voters have participated in multiple direct elections since 2003 with minimal international support. Other African countries with similar or worse security challenges have managed to conduct inclusive polls. In fact, a recent voter registration drive in Mogadishu saw high turnout and enthusiasm, proving that the Somali people are eager and able to participate when given the opportunity.

The current Somali government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has announced a roadmap to end the 4.5 system and hold nationwide direct elections by late 2025. Voter registration and pilot local elections are already underway. This effort is not without obstacles—some regional states have resisted, and the security threat from Al-Shabaab remains. But these challenges are not insurmountable.

What’s needed now is unambiguous international support. Western donors must align their rhetoric with action: condition future aid on democratic benchmarks, provide funding for election infrastructure and security, and clearly communicate that further delays in democratization are unacceptable. Diplomatic pressure must be matched with technical and financial assistance.

Western taxpayers, too, should ask: Why are we funding a system in Somalia that disenfranchises its people? Why is democracy promoted elsewhere but not in Somalia, where it is most urgently needed?

Somalia is approaching a historic moment. For the first time in over 50 years, there is a real chance that its leaders will be chosen by the people—not by clans, not by deals, but by votes. The international community, especially the West, has a moral and strategic responsibility to help make that happen. If they fail to do so, they risk not just another broken promise, but the erosion of their credibility as defenders of democracy on the world stage.

About Author Dr. Abdirahman Yusuf Gelle
A distinguished Somali professor of constitutional law and public governance, specializing in state-building, electoral systems, and legal reform in East Africa. He has published extensively on post-conflict legal transitions and has advised regional institutions on democratic development and rule of law.