Why Al-Shabaab Will Not Capture Mogadishu: A Strategic Analysis by Dahir Mire Jibreel

In a timely and pointed analysis, Somali political commentator and security analyst Dahir Mire Jibreel outlines five compelling reasons why Al-Shabaab, the militant group long entrenched in Somalia’s hinterlands, will not succeed in capturing Mogadishu, the nation’s capital and political heart.

Despite recent attacks across central Somalia, concerns that Mogadishu could fall into the hands of extremists remain far-fetched when examined through the lens of local dynamics, foreign alliances, and regional geopolitics.

1. Unified Clan and Business Resistance

Mogadishu is not just a capital—it is the economic engine of Somalia. Influential clans and entrenched business elites have too much to lose should the city fall into chaos. These power structures are deeply invested in the capital’s stability and have the resources, manpower, and motivation to mount fierce resistance against any serious threat. Al-Shabaab would not only face the Somali government, but also the armed will of the capital’s socio-economic backbone.

2. Turkey’s Military Presence and Air Superiority

Turkey’s strategic involvement in Somalia has gone far beyond diplomacy. The Turkish military base in Mogadishu is the largest of its kind outside Turkey, with thousands of Somali troops trained and deployed under Turkish supervision. More importantly, Turkey possesses airpower and drone capabilities that could quickly neutralize a large-scale Al-Shabaab mobilization. Any direct offensive toward Mogadishu would trigger a powerful military response backed by advanced surveillance and precision strikes.

3. Regional Geopolitical Opposition

Mogadishu’s fall would be a nightmare scenario not only for Somalia but also for Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and the Gulf States, all of whom have strategic interests in a stable Somali state. The capital’s destabilization would ripple across the Horn of Africa, opening the door to cross-border insurgency and economic disruption. These nations, who have previously engaged in military interventions, would be compelled to act swiftly to defend the city.

4. African Union Contingency Forces

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) remains a critical line of defense. Despite troop drawdowns, AUSSOM forces maintain contingency protocols designed to prevent a hostile takeover of major cities. Mogadishu, as the seat of the federal government, is a red line for the African Union and would trigger coordinated defensive operations in the face of any credible assault.

5. Vulnerability to Modern Warfare Technology

Al-Shabaab’s traditional advantage lies in asymmetrical guerrilla tactics—hit-and-run attacks, IEDs, and covert operations. A large-scale movement toward Mogadishu would expose the group to modern surveillance systems, satellite imagery, and continuous drone coverage. In open combat scenarios, their forces are highly vulnerable to airstrikes and precision targeting, making it extremely unlikely they could ever mount a sustained assault on the capital.

Mogadishu is Not Falling

While Al-Shabaab remains a persistent threat in Somalia’s rural and semi-urban zones, the idea that it could capture Mogadishu is strategically improbable, argues Dahir Mire Jibreel. Between entrenched local resistance, foreign military backing, and regional geopolitical stakes, the capital is fortified not just by walls and weapons, but by a multilayered alliance of actors determined to prevent its collapse.

Mogadishu’s survival is not a matter of chance—it is a result of calculated defenses, active alliances, and a city that refuses to fall.