In South Sudan, the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar by forces loyal to President Salva Kiir marks, according to analysts, an escalation that brings the world’s youngest country closer to a new conflict, nearly seven years after a devastating civil war.

Rising Tensions
The conflict between supporters of the two leaders caused around 400,000 deaths and displaced four million people between 2013 and 2018.
South Sudan, a country rich in oil but extremely poor otherwise, is plagued by power struggles, corruption, and ethnic conflicts.
Nasir County in the northeast has for weeks been the scene of clashes between federal forces loyal to the president and a “White Army,” a militia accused by the government of collaborating with Riek Machar.
After one of its camps was taken in early March, the South Sudanese army bombed rebel positions, killing twenty people—mostly women and children—according to a local county official.
While other regions have also seen violence, Machar’s party denounced airstrikes against its forces near Juba on March 26. That same evening, the vice president was arrested.

“Major Succession Problem”
While the South Sudanese government officially justified Machar’s arrest by accusing him of preparing a rebellion, regional experts believe President Kiir, 73, is instead trying to secure his succession and weaken Machar.
“There is a major succession issue in South Sudan,” said a humanitarian worker based in Juba who requested anonymity for security reasons. “President Kiir is not in good health,” and members of his party and government are trying to take over.
Since February, more than 20 political and military allies of Machar have been arrested. In at least three states, governors loyal to him have been replaced by Kiir supporters.
These unilateral decisions go against the power-sharing agreement established by the 2018 peace deal, which Machar’s party now considers void following his arrest.
“The president is acting as if no agreement exists,” said Daniel Akech, a researcher with the International Crisis Group (ICG), to AFP. He is escalating the situation, and the arrest of the vice president is “a peak” on the path to war, Akech added.

Drained Finances, Discontented Army
This political-military crisis comes as the South Sudanese government faces a financial crisis—90% of its revenue comes from oil. The country is suffering major production issues, with output dropping from 140,000 to 20,000 barrels per day, according to a Western diplomat based in Juba.
According to ICG, this is due to the shutdown of a pipeline transporting South Sudanese oil, linked to the ongoing war in neighboring Sudan.
Due to a lack of funds, soldiers haven’t been paid in over a year, except for a few recent partial salary payments, AFP sources say.
The early March arrival of Ugandan forces to support Kiir, reportedly paid in U.S. dollars, has further stoked anger among unpaid South Sudanese troops.

Risk of “Explosion”
A Western diplomat based in Juba believes the crisis goes far beyond the Kiir-Machar rivalry. “The population has lost all trust” in Machar since he joined the government in 2018 and “shared the cake” with the president and his allies, he said.
Moreover, Kiir’s health “could deteriorate at any time, or he could travel abroad for treatment, which could trigger an explosion of violence in Juba and elsewhere,” he warned.
Kiir’s likely successor, Benjamin Bol Mel—appointed vice president in February—is “hated” across the country, even within his own party, where many consider him an outsider.
Daniel Akech also fears that some groups may break free from both leaders’ control, fueling a wave of “decentralized violence.”

Absent International Community
In the face of mounting tensions, the UN has repeatedly called for respect of the peace process. Western embassies in Juba have offered to mediate. Former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who came to Juba on Friday to “defuse” the situation, met with Salva Kiir but was denied access to Riek Machar.
This is seen as a weak response by experts, especially as fighting in the northeast has already displaced over 60,000 people and hindered efforts to combat cholera. The country is currently facing its worst cholera outbreak in 20 years, with more than 40,000 cases and nearly 700 deaths in six months, according to UNICEF.