Kenya is once again at the heart of Sudan’s escalating power struggle as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), prepares to announce a parallel government in Nairobi. Originally scheduled for Monday, the announcement has now been pushed to Tuesday, marking a direct challenge to the military regime of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, which is based in Port Sudan.

The proclamation, called the “Political Charter for the Government of Peace and Unity,” aims to restore what the RSF considers the legitimate government of Sudan, which they claim was overthrown by remnants of the Islamic movement. The RSF is positioning this new administration as a coalition of political, civil, and social forces, along with armed movements, to usher in a new era of stability and peace in Sudan.

Although the RSF had initially planned to declare the new government from territories under its control, the decision to make the announcement in Nairobi has significant geopolitical ramifications. This move could escalate Sudan’s internal conflict and draw Kenya into direct diplomatic tensions with the Port Sudan government.

Kenya has been navigating a delicate diplomatic balancing act regarding Sudan. In recent months, relations between Nairobi and Khartoum seemed to be improving, particularly after a January meeting between President William Ruto and Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadiq, which was seen as a potential step toward resetting ties. Al-Sadiq even suggested that Kenya had reassessed its stance on the Sudanese conflict. However, despite these reassurances, Kenya’s interactions with the RSF have remained visible, raising concerns over its growing engagement with Hemedti’s forces.

In a recent high-profile development, Kenya welcomed Abdulrahim Dagalo, the RSF deputy commander and Hemedti’s brother, during a state visit, despite U.S. sanctions on him for allegedly exacerbating Sudan’s civil war. The lavish reception for Hemedti in 2024 also added fuel to tensions with Sudan’s military leadership, which quickly recalled its ambassador in protest.

Now, the RSF’s decision to declare a government from Kenyan soil places Nairobi in a precarious diplomatic position. The RSF is using Nairobi as a platform to gain international legitimacy, positioning itself as more than just a militia by seeking recognition as a governing authority. However, this move risks further straining Kenya’s relations with Sudan, particularly with the Port Sudan-based government, which has already signaled its displeasure with Nairobi’s increasing ties to the RSF.

The diplomatic consequences for Kenya are substantial. Hosting the RSF’s proclamation could ignite a diplomatic fallout with Sudan’s military government, drawing retaliatory measures from Port Sudan. It also places Kenya under the scrutiny of global powers, especially the U.S., which has imposed sanctions on key RSF figures. Nairobi’s actions could invite increased international pressure if the RSF’s political ambitions are seen as a step toward destabilizing Sudan further.

The African Union (AU) also faces a dilemma. Sudan remains suspended from the AU following the 2021 coup, but the RSF’s rising influence might force the organization to reconsider its position on Sudan. As Kenya continues to walk this fine line, its decision on whether to support the RSF’s new government will have lasting consequences for its role in regional diplomacy and its relationships with global powers.

As the RSF prepares to announce its new government, Kenya’s position in the Sudanese conflict is becoming ever more entangled, raising questions about the country’s long-term diplomatic strategy and its potential role in shaping Sudan’s future.