Somali President Hasan Sheikh Mahmud, although sometimes criticized for his frequent foreign trips, opens new doors for Somalia with every country he visits. In the wake of a prolonged civil war that not only shattered the state structure but also crippled the nation’s diplomatic mechanisms, Mahmud is reestablishing Somali diplomacy on the international stage with the finesse of a seasoned diplomat. In this context, the President’s first official visit to Azerbaijan is of great significance—not only for deepening bilateral relations but also for its potential to build a new geopolitical bridge between the Horn of Africa and the South Caucasus. As Somalia enters a critical period in its quest for state-building and economic stability, Azerbaijan stands out on the global stage with its expertise in energy diplomacy and military technology. This visit should be interpreted as the beginning of a multidisciplinary cooperation model that will strengthen both nations’ positions within the international system.

Diplomacy: Building Alliances in International Organizations and Expanding Partnerships

Beyond deepening bilateral ties, Somalia and Azerbaijan have the potential to develop mutual support mechanisms on international platforms, thereby opening new diplomatic avenues for each other. Azerbaijan can advocate for Somalia’s territorial integrity, counterterrorism measures, and developmental assistance within global organizations such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the United Nations (UN). In return, Somalia may pave the way for diplomatic initiatives supporting Azerbaijan’s claims over Nagorno-Karabakh and its position in the OSCE Minsk Group process.

Azerbaijan’s diplomatic clout could prove pivotal in helping Somalia secure a robust ally within international organizations. As one of the leading nations in the Non-Aligned Movement, Azerbaijan can serve as a strategic partner for Somalia in enhancing its relations with countries of the Global South. Moreover, Somalia’s active participation in regional organizations such as the African Union and the Arab League could further bolster Azerbaijan’s diplomatic presence on these continents. For instance, initiatives aimed at granting Azerbaijan observer status in the Arab League would not only amplify Baku’s influence in the Middle East but also increase Somalia’s international visibility during this process.

Somalia’s geostrategic position and its active role in regional organizations provide a fertile ground for Azerbaijan’s new diplomatic outreach. In parallel, Azerbaijan’s achievements on the global stage will help solidify Somalia’s presence internationally. By establishing reciprocal support mechanisms, both countries stand to gain stronger positions in international organizations and expand the scope of long-term diplomatic cooperation.

Energy Cooperation: Unlocking Somalia’s Resources by Leveraging Azerbaijan’s Expertise

Somalia’s lengthy coastline along the Indian Ocean conceals vast untapped reserves of oil and natural gas that could play a pivotal role in the country’s economic transformation. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Somalia may possess around 10 billion barrels of crude oil and 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. However, limitations in infrastructure, technical know-how, and persistent political instability have hindered the effective exploitation of these resources.

Here, Azerbaijan—along with its robust energy sector—emerges as a crucial partner. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), known for its extensive international experience in oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, could provide essential technical support. By assisting in seismic surveys, drilling operations, and the development of necessary infrastructure, SOCAR could spearhead the creation of a strategic energy cooperation model between the two nations.

Moreover, the initiatives of the Baku administration in the renewable energy sector offer significant opportunities for Somalia, given its substantial potential in solar and wind energy. Under Azerbaijan’s “Green Energy” projects, the establishment of solar and wind power plants in Somalia could reduce its energy dependency and facilitate a transition toward a more sustainable development model. Azerbaijan’s logistical expertise in energy trade, combined with its strong networks in international energy markets, will also be instrumental in integrating Somalia’s natural resources into the global market securely and efficiently.

This energy collaboration is not only expected to help Somalia achieve energy independence but also to provide Azerbaijan with a strategic gateway to the African market. In a region where China, Türkiye, and the Gulf countries are actively investing in the Horn of Africa, Azerbaijan’s partnership with Somalia could enhance its regional influence and establish a new nexus in energy trade.

Security Cooperation: Transferring Technology and Expertise in the Fight Against Terrorism

Somalia has long struggled with internal conflicts and radical terrorist organizations, necessitating comprehensive reforms in its security architecture. To effectively combat groups such as Al-Shabaab, Somalia urgently requires enhanced intelligence sharing, border security, and military modernization through international partnerships. Drawing on its hard-won military experience in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan can offer Somalia valuable support in these areas.

Azerbaijan’s advancements in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), electronic warfare, and border security technologies could significantly bolster Somali counterterrorism operations. UAVs like the Bayraktar TB2—developed in collaboration with Türkiye —could enhance the capabilities of Somali security forces in reconnaissance and precision strike operations, thereby contributing to a more effective asymmetric defense strategy.

Furthermore, defense industry collaborations involving prominent Azerbaijani companies such as ASELSAN and ROKETSAN could directly assist in the modernization of Somalia’s armed forces. Through joint military training programs, technical support, and equipment transfers, Somalia’s security forces can be better equipped to counter emerging threats. Azerbaijan’s expertise in mine clearance operations during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may also prove crucial in mitigating the threat posed by improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted by extremist groups like Al-Shabaab.

Such security cooperation is expected not only to enhance Somalia’s internal security but also to open new markets for Azerbaijani military exports, thereby laying the groundwork for long-term strategic partnerships between the two nations.

Türkiye’s Bridge Role: New Horizons in the Tripartite Cooperation Model

In the aftermath of the 2011 crisis, Türkiye’s humanitarian and development-focused initiatives in Somalia—particularly in Mogadishu—have played a critical role in rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure. Türkiye’s investments, amounting to approximately USD 4 billion in projects such as airports, hospitals, schools, and military training bases, have significantly contributed to the reconstruction of Somalia’s state apparatus. Moreover, the military training center established by Türkiye for the Somali armed forces in Mogadishu has been central to enhancing the country’s security capabilities.

The strategic alliance between Türkiye and Azerbaijan lends a fresh perspective to a potential tripartite cooperation model involving Somalia. The 2023 Shusha Declaration, which further cemented defense and energy collaborations between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, provides a solid foundation for integrating such projects into Somalia’s state-building process. The key pillars of this tripartite model can be outlined as follows:

Defense and Security Cooperation: Integrated efforts through joint military training programs by Türkiye and Azerbaijan to modernize the Somali armed forces and develop effective counterterrorism strategies.

Energy Cooperation: Collaborative investment projects between Türkiye and Azerbaijan in exploring oil and gas reserves in Somalia, along with initiatives to modernize the energy infrastructure and harness renewable energy resources.

Trade and Logistics: Joint projects by Turkish and Azerbaijani firms aimed at modernizing Somali ports, strengthening maritime transportation, and enhancing logistics infrastructure, thereby reinforcing the economic dimension of this tripartite cooperation.

This model—by merging Türkiye’s diplomatic network and economic strength in Africa with Azerbaijan’s competencies in energy and defense industries—has the potential to accelerate Somalia’s development process significantly.

Conclusion: The Emergence of a New Geopolitical Axis and Its Contribution to Regional Balance

The strategic cooperation among Somalia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye has the potential to create a new geopolitical axis that spans Africa, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus—positioning the emerging power of the Global South in a pivotal role. This tripartite cooperation not only promises to secure Somalia’s internal stability and economic resilience but also aims to enhance Azerbaijan’s influence in Africa and consolidate Türkiye’s presence in the Horn of Africa.

While the roles of global actors such as China and the United States in the region cannot be overlooked, the Somali-Azerbaijan-Türkiye triangle embodies a “win-win” diplomatic approach that may boost regional stability and inject new dynamism into the global economy. The tangible outcomes of this visit are expected to materialize in the coming months through the signing of security, energy, and trade agreements. Already, the evolving geopolitical map clearly indicates that Somalia is strengthening its position on the international stage through the forging of new alliances.

In essence, this comprehensive model of cooperation not only deepens bilateral ties but also lays the foundation for a new tripartite alignment that could redefine the balance of power in the region and pave the way for long-term strategic initiatives that will influence global political and economic trajectories.

By Jawhar Ganiyeva. Ganiyeva is a distinguished professor at Baku University, specializing in African politics. With a career spanning several years, Ganiyeva has established herself as a leading academic in the field, contributing significantly to the understanding of political dynamics, governance, and socio-economic issues in Africa. Her research focuses on the intricate relationships between African nations and global powers, regional integration, and the impact of colonialism on contemporary African political systems.