Tensions are once again on the rise between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, with ongoing clashes involving the M23 rebel group and accusations of foreign interference. Against this backdrop, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stepped forward, offering Türkiye ‘s mediation to help resolve the crisis. This move is part of Ankara’s broader strategy to expand its influence in Africa, both diplomatically and economically. But can Türkiye realistically play the role of a neutral and effective mediator in such a deep-rooted conflict?

Türkiye’s Growing Role in Mediation

Over the past decade, Türkiye has been increasingly positioning itself as a global peace broker. It played a crucial role in negotiating the Black Sea grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, proving its ability to bring warring parties to the table. Additionally, Türkiye has engaged in mediation efforts in Somalia and Ethiopia, as well as attempting to ease tensions between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates.

However, mediating in the Great Lakes region presents a different set of challenges. Turkey’s experience in sub-Saharan Africa’s complex political and security environment remains limited. Unlike the Middle East, where Ankara has long-standing geopolitical stakes, Central Africa is relatively new ground for Turkish diplomacy.

What’s Driving the DRC-Rwanda Conflict?

The tensions between the DRC and Rwanda are deeply entrenched. The conflict is fueled by a mix of historical grievances, regional power struggles, and economic interests. The DRC accuses Rwanda of backing the M23 rebel group, which has been responsible for violent incursions in eastern Congo. Kigali, on the other hand, argues that it faces security threats from Hutu militias operating within the DRC’s borders.

Despite multiple mediation attempts from regional bodies like the African Union and the East African Community (EAC), a sustainable resolution has remained elusive. The sheer complexity of the conflict raises the question: can Turkey offer a fresh approach that others haven’t?

Why Türkiye Might Have an Edge

• A Perception of Neutrality: Unlike Western or African mediators, Türkiye has no colonial history or direct economic stakes in the DRC-Rwanda dispute, which could help it be seen as an impartial broker.
• Diplomatic and Economic Ties with Africa: Turkey has steadily expanded its influence across Africa, investing in infrastructure, trade, and humanitarian projects. This diplomatic goodwill could serve as a bridge to conflict resolution.
• Experience in Brokering Deals: Türkiye’s role in mediating international disputes—such as in Libya, Ukraine, and the Gulf region—shows that it has the political and logistical capability to host negotiations and facilitate dialogue.

4. The Roadblocks Ahead

• Limited Presence in Central Africa: Unlike regional players like Angola or Uganda, Türkiye has not historically been deeply involved in Central African affairs, which could limit its leverage and understanding of local dynamics.
• Competing Mediation Efforts: The African Union, the EAC, and other international actors have already been involved in mediation efforts. Turkey’s intervention might be met with skepticism or even resistance.
• Gaining Trust on the Ground: While Türkiye has built strong ties with African nations, mediating a conflict of this scale requires deep trust from both sides—something Ankara would need to establish first.

Türkiye’s offer to mediate between the DRC and Rwanda is an ambitious diplomatic move that aligns with its growing presence in Africa. Its neutrality, strategic outreach, and recent successes in international mediation make it a potentially valuable player in peace efforts. However, the entrenched nature of the conflict, the presence of established mediators, and Turkey’s relatively limited experience in Central Africa present serious challenges.

If Ankara can navigate these obstacles and gain the confidence of both Kinshasa and Kigali, it could strengthen its position as a credible peace broker not just in Africa, but on the global stage. However, successful mediation will require sustained commitment, deep engagement with regional actors, and a clear strategy for long-term conflict resolution.

By Dimitri Kouvaris

Dimitri Kouvaris is a Greek expert specializing in East African geopolitics, conflict resolution, and economic development. With extensive experience analyzing the region’s political dynamics, he has provided insightful commentary on international diplomacy, trade, and security issues affecting the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region. His work focuses on understanding the complex relationships between African nations and global actors, including Turkey, China, and Western powers. Kouvaris has contributed to numerous research publications, think tanks, and me