Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation and one of its oldest states, finds itself at a crossroads. As the Prosperity Party prepares for its 2nd Congress, scheduled for January 31 to February 2, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces immense challenges that threaten the country’s stability, unity, and future. While the Congress will highlight the government’s achievements under his leadership—economic reforms, peacebuilding efforts, and attempts to strengthen the federal system—the reality on the ground paints a far more complex picture.

By Anber Kebede

A Nation in Turmoil
When Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018, his ascent symbolized hope for change. His reformist agenda, including the release of political prisoners, peace with Eritrea, and promises of political openness, earned him international acclaim, culminating in the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. However, the optimism of his early years has been overshadowed by mounting ethnic tensions, devastating conflicts, and economic hardship.

Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism, codified in its 1995 constitution, was intended to balance the country’s diversity by granting significant autonomy to its regions. Instead, it has fueled division, with various ethnic groups vying for greater control over resources and political power. The civil war in Tigray, which began in November 2020, exposed the fragility of this system. Despite the peace agreement signed in late 2022, the conflict left deep scars that remain unhealed, and unrest continues in Oromia, Amhara, and other regions. These challenges undermine the Prosperity Party’s vision of “unity through diversity” and question its ability to maintain a cohesive state.

The Prosperity Party Congress: Hope or Rhetoric?
The upcoming Prosperity Party Congress is expected to celebrate the party’s achievements while setting the agenda for Ethiopia’s future. Hon. Adem Farah, a senior party leader, has emphasized the importance of unity and collective resilience in overcoming challenges. However, critics argue that the Congress risks becoming a platform for rhetorical triumphalism rather than substantive reform.

While the Prosperity Party highlights progress in expanding political dialogue, many Ethiopians feel excluded from these discussions. Opposition groups and civil society actors have long called for more inclusive governance and meaningful decentralization, but the government has been slow to engage in genuine dialogue. Without addressing these grievances, Ethiopia’s federal structure will remain a source of instability.

Economic Challenges: Between Ambition and Reality
Ethiopia’s economic story under Abiy Ahmed is one of ambitious reform overshadowed by pressing challenges. Major projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) symbolize the country’s aspirations for economic transformation, yet these achievements have not translated into widespread prosperity. Inflation, unemployment, and rising debt burden millions of Ethiopians, exacerbating inequality and fueling discontent.

The Prosperity Party’s economic liberalization policies, including privatization of state-owned enterprises, have attracted foreign investment but failed to address systemic issues. The Congress is likely to showcase these initiatives as evidence of progress, but many Ethiopians are skeptical. The lived realities of high food prices and stagnant incomes have led to growing frustration, particularly among the youth. The question remains whether the government can bridge the gap between its economic ambitions and the needs of its people.

Peacebuilding in the Shadow of Conflict
The Tigray conflict, one of the most devastating chapters in Ethiopia’s recent history, has left a lasting impact on the nation’s psyche. Although the official war has ended, reconciliation has been slow and uneven. Communities affected by the conflict demand accountability and justice, while the government struggles to rebuild trust.

The Prosperity Party has framed itself as a champion of peacebuilding, yet its actions have often been criticized as heavy-handed. Ongoing clashes in Oromia and other regions highlight the need for a more inclusive and nuanced approach to peace. The Congress offers an opportunity to outline a clear roadmap for reconciliation, but whether this will happen remains uncertain.

Can Ethiopia Endure?
Ethiopia’s survival as a unified and stable state hinges on its ability to address systemic challenges. Political reconciliation is paramount. Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party must engage with opposition groups, regional leaders, and civil society to foster national unity. The government’s centralized approach has alienated many stakeholders, and only genuine dialogue can rebuild trust.

Economic recovery is equally critical. Investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure must prioritize equity to reduce regional disparities. Large-scale projects like the GERD are vital, but they must be accompanied by policies that directly improve citizens’ lives.

The international community also plays a crucial role. Ethiopia’s relationships with global powers have been strained by allegations of human rights abuses and the government’s handling of conflicts. Rebuilding these relationships is essential to securing the financial and technical support needed for recovery.

A Defining Moment for Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia
The Prosperity Party Congress is more than a political gathering; it is a defining moment for Ethiopia’s future. It represents an opportunity to acknowledge the country’s achievements while confronting its pressing challenges head-on. For Abiy Ahmed, the stakes could not be higher. His leadership will be judged not by the promises made at the Congress but by his ability to navigate Ethiopia through its current crises.

Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. The resilience of its people and the vision of its leaders will determine whether it emerges stronger or succumbs to its divisions. As the Congress convenes under the banner of unity, the world watches closely, hoping that Ethiopia can translate its promise into reality. Whether it can survive under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership remains an open question—but the answer will shape the trajectory of one of Africa’s most pivotal nations.